Global Geopolitics & Europe–Russia Tensions :

In the Western world, a few developments happened in recent days. The NATO chief stated that Russia may attack the US, but Russian officials responded, saying that such statements by European leaders have no meaning.

If a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine happens, then wars and uncertainty will automatically decrease, and European nations will not need to spend heavily on defence sectors. Whenever peace-deal news comes out, European defence stocks start falling, which clearly shows market sentiment.

Russian President Vladimir Putin also called European leaders “little pigs” and stated that what needs to happen in Ukraine will happen according to Russia, either through diplomacy involving the US or through war. These were strong and solid statements made by Putin.
Previously, European nations also blocked some Russian funds, which added to the tension.

From all these scenarios, we can understand that conflict between European nations and Russia may continue.

India Market Analysis:

Over the last two days, FIIs have turned into buyers. We need to observe whether FII selling has decreased and paused, or if FIIs feel there is no further logic in selling at these levels. This clarity is still needed.

The US CPI inflation came in lower than expected, which is positive for Indian markets. However, the Bank of Japan plans to increase rates by 25 basis points, which is not good for markets. Currently, Japan’s loan rate is at 0.75%, which is the highest level in three decades.

The US trade deal is not happening, and because of this, the rupee weakened to around ₹91, but it has now stabilised near ₹89.95. If the rupee remains stable, it will be positive for Indian markets.

CPI, Fed Rate Cuts & Market Reaction :

The market was expecting around 3% CPI inflation, and if inflation comes below this level, the Federal Reserve may go for rate cuts. The Fed meeting is scheduled for January 30–31, 2026.

Currently, CPI and jobs data indicate that there is a chance of support for Fed rate cuts, and because of this, global markets and Indian markets moved up on Friday.

Rate cuts usually boost gold and silver prices, as bond investments become less attractive and liquidity increases in precious metals. Also, when the economy improves, companies produce more products, which further increases demand for silver.